Range Anxiety. It is the number 1 reason that fewer people own all-electric cars. I’ve heard comments like this for years:
Weight, cost, space are my only concerns. Versions/hybrids are currently running with success. I see a combination of a small diesel powered generator, battery and electric motors being the most viable and easiest to achieve in the near future. Having to charge every 600 miles? Getting infrastructure for CNG has been tough enough, imagine the banks of charging stations needed, drivers have a hard enough time finding parking for breaks. 34,000 lb. payloads might be a little skinny.
I think a fundamental assumption was made that someone else has to build the charging infrastructure. Tesla doesn’t wait for that. Currently, there are over 2600 chargers in over 370 locations in the United States. There are plans to double those in 2017 alone. And I ain’t talking for semis. Or, at least I don’t think I am.
I live in the “black hole” of Tesla charging stations. Arkansas does not have a single one, nor are there any in western Tennessee. It is easy to be myopic regarding Tesla when an MSA of 300,000 plus has probably less than 10 Teslas on the road, and the nearest Supercharger is 100 miles away. Arkansas is also a black hole for other things, but even Mississippi has more superchargers.
But those in the rest of the country see them all the time. I counted 5 at a traffic light stop during a visit to San Jose. I’ve seen them used as Uber and pizza delivery cars. I heard that one is being used as a food truck in Portland. (Ok, I don’t know the food truck one is real, but it feels true.)
Hybrids Are Not Part of the Plan
I Googled “why didn’t tesla start with building hybrids?” and found this post on Quora. The takeaway from Ernie Dunbar is that “…they didn’t want to fuck around.” Indeed, that is precisely why. Hybrids are an interim solution to the all-electric, solar-powered future.
It is also why those in the transportation industry should take notice how quickly all of this has happened. It stems from failing to question generally accepted conventional wisdoms. Lockheed-Martin could not believe an individually financed company could unseat them at NASA. But SpaceX did.
True industry disruption occurs when someone questions conventional wisdom and starts with “first principles“. Why can’t we re-use rockets? Why do we have to wait for others to roll out infrastructure? Why can’t roofs be made from solar cells, instead of mounting them on top? Why do electric cars have to look like shit?
Sure, the first ones may only go 600 miles and only have have a payload capacity of 34,000 pounds, but the Tesla roadster (a “hacked” Lotus) was released in 2006, but by 2012 – just 6 years later – Tesla released a new-from-the-ground-up 4-door legitimate all-electric card that outsells most full-size luxury sedans to this day.
Tesla went back to first principles to question design, engineering, manufacturing, everything. For the upcoming Model 3, they even skipped a build prototype stage that conventional manufacturers use to test actual manufacturing processes with disposable manufacturing lines and vehicles. Saved Tesla months in getting the Model 3 to market, and will probably revolutionize auto manufacturing.
The internal combustion engine is dying before our eyes. 20 years from now it will be a quaint thing that will be nostalgically remembered like rotary dial phones. Only car aficionados and collectors will be interested in ICE cars. Electric will be too mainstream and a “no brainer”.
”[A] vast majority of surveyed Americans admitted to being “afraid” of riding in an autonomous vehicle while over half said they felt less safe at the prospect of sharing the road with driverless technology.”
If a problem cannot be solved, enlarge it. – Dwight D. Eisenhower
In the Tesla analyst’s call yesterday, Musk spent time discussing future plans. Underpinning these plans, and something I have been pondering for quite some time, is Elon’s conviction of concentrating efforts on “building the machines that builds the machines”.
The addition of newly minted Tesla Solar production to the Gigafactory model means Tesla will be producing all three of its core product families – Motors, Energy and Solar – in a single factory footprint. Vetting this concept out in Gigafactory 2 will provide a nice blueprint for future Gigafactories as Tesla looks beyond the borders of the U.S. towards international expansion.
Can these devices be designed and built to be so flexible as to be able to build anything? Musk thinks there are orders of magnitude of improvement yet to come from automation and robotics.
Gigafactories 3, 4, and 5:
Tesla casually dropped news that the locations of Gigafactory 3, 4 and possibly 5 would be finalized later this year. The obvious location for #3 is Europe with strong Tesla vehicle sales in the region supported by an ever growing fleet of Superchargers in the area.
To put a final point on the ability to think big, Kyle sums up with this:
Building on just the core need for batteries, a modular Gigafactory allows Tesla to move its production into a region in a single step, establishing local supply chains for raw materials while also cutting costs on shipping batteries, vehicles and solar products at the same time. Batteries and cars are not cheap to ship and this move makes sense on many levels.
I’m thinking at this point, Elon Musk is the machine that builds the machines that builds the machines.
Welcome to Season 1, Episode 1 of the Technology – Business – Culture Podcast where we feature thought leaders and unique perspectives from tastemakers, independent thinkers and others that share a common interest in pursuing excellence in work and life.
Phil is well-known in the region, not only for his successful practice, but also for his unique commercials (made by Mike Hart at 5 Star Productions) that catch your attention.
I’ve know Phil since his firm became a client of Kirkham Systems a few years back, and have always enjoyed our discussions. And I can vouch for the fact that “you’ve never met a lawyer like him”.
Phil is energetic, curious and passionate. He is also a recovering accountant, but now only practices law.
This podcast was recorded the day after the launch of the Tesla Model 3, so we just jump right into a Tesla and Elon Musk discussion. You also hear Melanie Radcliff in the background, who will be a guest in an upcoming episode.
Mentioned on the show (none of these are affiliate links, but wish they were):
Phil’s Books (Amazon links): Author John Scalzi (Writer’s page): “You can get to his blog by typing the word “Whatever” into Google. No, seriously, try it.” Author Robert Heinlein (List of books on Amazon)
Global Equities Research’s Trip Chowdhry contends that the Model 3 has been “designed for the iPhone generation”
Tesla has set a formidable world record of any Consumer Technology company, of booking orders of more than $11.6 Billion within the first 72 hours…
General Motors Bolt is DoD (Dead-on-Departure), and General Motors should just cancel this project; completely misses the mark with the iPhone generation consumer “It’s An Ugly Tiffin Box”
Tesla Model 3 has been designed for the iPhone generation consumer, whose lives are digitally super-centered … and competition is completely clueless .. somehow it seems that existing auto manufacturers believe that iPhones can be powered by Gasoline and not Batteries
Judging from the following comments, I’m not sure that many investors get just how revolutionary this is:
tesla has proven with factory conducted cross country test drives that they are only able to get 45mph average speeds on a cross country trip. If you are ok with that in a $130,000 car, then good for you.But I can get an average speed of 70mph driving 12 hours in a 1970 VW beetle, on gasoline.
the fatal error that tesla is making is the decree that gasoline is evil and must be shunned at all costs (no matter how much more you must pay for their cars).that is false to the point of being religious delusion. Petroleum has been the foundation of modern civilization for the last 100 years, and will continue its role for the next 100 years.
And, this post must have been alcohol related:
this story proves that tesla has totally failed in its quest to make battery powered electric cars replace gas powered cars.
Seriously, do these people even know what a Tesla is?